Investment Strategy & Financial Economics
Investment Decision-Models & Predictive Analytics
Med Jones is considered by many as one of the most accurate independent strategists, he also designed R6 investment management algorithm and manages IIM social impact fund that out performed 99% of asset management and hedge funds. See the bottom section of this page for R6 investment performance presentation
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Sample Industry and Academic
Recognition
(Note: Some excerpts are Google-translated into English from their native language)
(Click on the reference thumbnails below to see the original source)
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What May and Can Be Forecasted?
Dr. Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman) indicated that the
economic models used at the Fed were little better than random...
97% of economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank in
Philadelphia in November 2007 forecasted a positive growth rate for
2008...Between mid-2006 and early 2007 Med Jones of the
International Institute of Management published a series of papers
in which he argued that economic growth was less sustainable than
commonly thought, fueled by household debt and a housing bubble. In
March 2007, he indicated to Reuters ...[the] stock market sell off. In
early 2009, he also accurately predicted the bottom of the recession
and anticipated modest recoveries in 2010 and early 2011...Third,
and most importantly, with the exception of Med Jones, the three
other forecasters [Dean Baker, Nouriel Roubini, and Peter Schiff],
lack unblemished forecasting record.
Rational Investing Book (page 61-63)
Asset Pricing and Investment Management
Columbia
University Press
Hugues Langlois, Professor of Finance at
HEC
Paris (France)
Jacques Lussier, Chief Investment Strategist at Desjardins Global
Asset Management - A $74.8 Billion Asset Management Firm
(Canada)
<- click on
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original
citation
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The Smarter Investor: Does Stock Forecasting Work?
"Top economists and investors alike failed to see it (financial
crisis) coming...(George Soros...Warren Buffett.. Ben Bernanke..
Alan Greenspan.. Paul Volcker..) But just when you think that such
foresight is outside the reach of common man, some prognosticator
emerges with a specific contrarian view and then with eerie accuracy
hits the nail on the head. Take for instance, the small group of
esteemed economists and financial managers that called the housing
crisis.....Then there is Med Jones, the president of the
International Institute of Management... Although Jones is less
known, he turned out to be the most accurate in predicting many of
the downturn's details."
Steve Beck
US News & World Report
Venture Capitalist, Board Member (Nasdaq:BIDU) $58 Billion
Market Cap
(USA)
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original
citation
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Book: Bubbles,
Booms and Busts
"..A prescient prediction...Yones said: It is
true that the US economy grew at 3.5 percent rate in 4th quarter of
2006, but the economic real growth is much less than advertised.
Since 2001, economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid
increases in asset prices (housing bubble) and expanding consumer
debt rather than development projects, which results in
non-sustainable and unhealthy (debt-driven) growth...Many Americans
refinanced their homes during the real-estate boom to pay for living
expenses. With the expected housing bubble bust (declining housing
values), Americans could lose a significant part of their savings"
The Rise and Fall of Financial Markets
Book(Page 314)
Donald Rapp, PhD
(USA)
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Congress Has Guaranteed The Secular
Bear Market Is Not Over.
On the historic side, the
secular bear markets of the last 120 years lasted an average of 17
years. In warning of a secular bear market being imminent in 1999,
Warren Buffett also spoke of 17 years, saying, "The next 17 years
will be quite unlike the last 17 years. It might not look much
better than the dismal 1965-1982 period."...Med Jones, economist at
the International Institute of Management, was not talking about
secular bear markets in his reference to 2017 in his 2006 academic
study 'U.S. Economic Risks 2007-2017', but said. "The next decade is
probably the most critical for U.S. socio-economic prosperity."
Sy Harding President
Asset Management Research Corporation
and
Author "Riding the Bear" Book
Forbes Magazine
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original
citation
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Follow
The Doomsayers?
Often economists simply get it wrong. One of the
financial experts reviewed in the research, who seems to more
consistently and accurately forecast economic events, is called Med
Jones.(He says) "The truth is that when people invest on Wall
Street, they are essentially making bets and guesstimates about the
future."
Simon Danaher
BNP Paribas Securities Services
(France)
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original
citation
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The wild
card event: Discursive, epistemic and practical aspects of
uncertainty being 'tamed'
The [failure to forecast]
might be due to lack of knowledge or sophisticated technology for
anticipating an event.... As a result of this type of unawareness,
the consequences of not approaching such issues properly might very
likely manifest themselves as wild cards (riots, political
assassinations, domestic terrorism, fascists winning elections,
etc.)....For instance, prior to the [Financial] Crisis of 2008,
there were people who had been warning about what might have come.
Among these were Dean Baker, Med Jones, Nouriel Roubini,... Their
analyses were neglected by conventional wisdom of mainstream
economics...Finally, the notion of a wild card event is at the heart
of recent developments in the futures studies realm but it is also
quite functional for the productivity and profitability of certain
economic sectors. Last but not least, it proved to be crucial for
the reproduction of political power.
Blagovesta Nikolova
Department of Social Theories, Strategies and Prognoses
Institute
for the Study of Societies and Knowledge
Time & Society Journal - Sage Research Publications
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Could the 2008 financial crisis have
been foreseen and prevented?
The crisis of 2008 was one
of the worst. Starting with the burst of the American housing bubble
to the failure of several large US financial firms, most notably
Lehman Brothers....Costing the US government roughly $10 trillion to
bail out banks resulting in an increase of budget deficit. Creating
family distress due to loss of jobs, homes and wealth. According to
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, "we all
misjudged the risks involved... everyone missed it - academia, the
Federal Reserve, all regulators" (Miller and Zumbrun) when
discussing the 2008 financial crisis. Greenspan view that "we all
misjudged the risks involved" can be held valid however that claim
that "everyone missed it" is untrue. The 2008 financial crises was
foreseen despite the difficulty of economic forecasting but it could
have not been prevented because of information and power asymmetries
that resulted from the system in place, human behaviour and the lack
of a leading authority. .....several credible early warnings and
evidence outlining the risks where identified and documented by
economist Dean Baker in 2005, strategy expert Med Jones in 2006 and
investment manager Peter Schiff also in 2006... However, the most
notable and cherished by the media for having foreseen the crisis is
Nourie Roubin, who wrote an IMF position paper on the crisis in 2007
when the US subprime mortgage collapsed. However, Roubin like many
others predicted the crisis as it was already unfolding. An
International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive summery states that
the crisis had already began in August 2007. Also, due to lack of
proper documentation, Roubin and others will be discredited from
having foreseen the crisis for time being. Leaving the focus on the
three economists above mentioned.
Carolina Merighi
International Political
Economy
Universita Bocconi (Italy)
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Pluralism and Economics Today
It is, however, unfair to argue that Mainstream Economics couldn't
have "seen it coming." A reasonably large number of senior
economists- including NourielRoubini, Raghuram Rajan, Dean Baker,
Med Jones and Peter Schiff- had issued warnings in advance, using
tools not beyond neoclassical methodology. A more relevant critique
is that many mainstream economists were compromised in their ability
to use the tools of neoclassical economics appropriately by the
political and financial realities of their senior positions in
policy making roles....Further issues plaguing the field itself
include the "capture" of the Economics...has been highlighted in
recent times by members of the Economics fraternity themselves.
Zingales' 2013 study confirms the nexus that exists between
academics, businesses, the State and eminent
publications...Incumbent economics professors who espouse orthodoxy
also control the degrees of their graduate students- the result of
course, is Graduate Students who are forced to conform (Zingales
2013).
Aniket Baksy and Nidhi Singh
Qrius
(formerly, The Indian Economist Magazine)
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Campden Wealth Management
The expert who predicted the financial crisis. What
did he tell the world's wealthiest families in Geneva?
(Switzerland)
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The Financial Crisis in Historical
Respective
Med Jones, the American expert who predicted the
financial crisis and for years warned about US uncontrolled public
and consumer debt.
Research Paper
Claus Norbjerg Sondergaard
Copenhagen Business School (Denmark)
<-
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original
citation
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A
Paradigm for Your Thoughts
A Kuhnian Analysis of
Expertise Upon whose advice should we act and whose should we steer
clear of? This is an old problem going back to Ancient Greece,
found in the Platonic dialogue Charmides. Even if our non-expert had
been vigilant enough to find those "pro-financial collapse"
arguments such as Keen (1995), Baker (2002), or Jones (2006), all
these authorities cite different causes, effects, ranges of time,
and arrived at their conclusions by different methodologies.
Professor Dr. Ben Trubody History, Religion,
Philosophy and Ethics University of Gloucestershire (United
Kingdom)
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Global
Economic Forecast
"Noted financial wizard...
He is among the few experts who warned about the global
financial crisis in 2008. His predictions were the most accurate and
comprehensive among the experts who warned about the crisis...It was indeed one of the best
analysis I have read about the global economy in my 23 years as
journalist"
Srinivasan L, Chief Reporter
Daily Tribune
(Bahrain)
<-
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original
citation
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Economic Predictions
Med Jones
provided Best Economic Predictions"
Mihai Banita
Money TV
(Romania)
<-
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original
citation
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The Solution to
all ills? Simple:
Reset the system
The solution to the current sovereign debt crisis and the
currency crises is there...'there needs to be a
political and economic reset on a global scale". To say in an
exclusive interview with Wall Street Italy is Med Jones, IIM's
financial consultant who was among those able to predict the
financial crisis that hit the United States three years ago. This
means that all world leaders - including enemies, without exception
- should sit around a table and agree to make concessions to the
indebted countries and restructure the entire economy.... This is the only way to start a new era of prosperity
and profitable socio-economic exchange. "Think about it - explains
Jones, a market observer and a great connoisseur of socio- economic
issues -" is certainly a better alternative to currency wars,
international hostilities and the persistent and increasing
risks of global socio-economic shocks... US is surely "a" place to invest in 2011... US remains the world largest economy and the leading
global trading partner for many countries. Despite the financial
crisis and the deficit spending, confidence in the US economy is
still higher than many countries around the world. .. A common
mistake is that of investing in one country or the other based on
macroeconomic outlook. Although every investor should take the
global economic outlook into consideration when they pick an asset,
the valuation of an asset can outweigh the general economic
condition. In fact an investor can pick a stock that preform better
in any economic conditions including inflation. The biggest mistake
that most investment managers make is to (not) look for valuable
opportunities, simply because the media is negative about one
country or sector. For example, the real estate market in the US is
a golden opportunity for long-term investors. To be more specific,
you can buy a foreclosed house of a medium size at about $ 150,000.
It is about 50% less than it was sold in 2008 and you can finance it
at incredibly low rate.
Daniele Chicca, Editor-in-Chief
Wall Street Italia
(Italy)
<-
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original
citation
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Economic Prediction from Horse's Mouth: The US Economic Recovery
The
three most common questions are: How did we get here? Why did our
top experts miss it? When do you think the economy will recover:
"The short answers are that spending on credit without enough
productions to pay it back (is how we got here). Groupthink mind-set
(is why top experts missed it). We'll experience more volatility in
2009 on the way to the bottom of the correction cycle. A modest
recovery will start in 2010/2011 (is the answer to when the economy
will recover.)
Carol Carter, Award-winning Business Journalist,
Atlanta
Business Chronicle
allbusiness.com (USA)
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Real
Estate Outlook 2010
One of
the few people who saw the US economic crisis coming, International
Institute of Management President
Med Yones,
is now predicting that
the economy will begin to recover in 2010. The IIM is not a fan of
expensive stimulus packages. It instead favors job creation through
funding for small businesses, The most cost effective and quickest
method to stimulate the U.S. economy is to support job creation
through US small businesses and innovation development. U.S. Census
Bureau statistics show that 98 percent of all U.S. firms have less
than 100 employees. These 27 million small businesses create over 85
percent of all new jobs and employ over 56 percent of all private
sector workers. The main focus of development programs should be
innovation development, export and employment support. This solution
would be a much less burden on the taxpayers; it can be implemented
without too much new legislation, and would have a much faster
positive impact on the economy. [A sustainable economic recovery
policy]
Paul Jones, Keller Williams
St.
George Real Estate (USA)
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Economic Recovery
If there is a financial guru in
the United States, it would have to be Med Yones, president of the
International Institute of Management. He is one of the few experts
who predicted the nation's current economic downturn. In fact his
economic predictions are generally considered to be the most
accurate. What does he foresee in his crystal ball for 2010?
Patricia C. Ress
Gazette Reporter (USA)
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"Predicted the US economic crisis"
World Finance Magazine
(UK)
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Insight Into a Financial Crisis
"Investment adviser predicted the U.S. real estate collapse"
Claire Compton
The Prague Post (Czech Republic)
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Economic Recovery Outlook
You may not be familiar with
Med Yones, IIM's president, but he's
one of the naysayers that waved a lot of red warning flags back in
2007 about the economic glide path we were on as a nation and as a
global community...
Yones also believes most economic and financial experts missed the crisis because of the "groupthink mindset", plus the lack of information and misinformation in the mainstream media. "In such environment, few have the insight and the courage to tell it as it is, and risk being ridiculed by other industry experts," he says...
Very useful insight into how we got into this mess in the first place...Information leads to knowledge and knowledge, as we all know, is power. So maybe some of Yones' projections here be put to good use...
Yones says the general economic decline
cycle will bottom in 2009 and we could see stability sometime late
2009 or early 2010, then we will be back to modest recovery in late
2010 or early 2011. However, the real estate, construction and
financial Industries will bottom out in 2010, the recovery could
start in 2011. "The combination of some of the counterproductive
policies and bad news, can further damage the investors' confidence,
thus sending the economy in downward spiral..."This would be the
worst case scenario, however, in our opinion, the new administration
has the knowledge and the tools to mitigate those risks..
Sean Kilcarr Senior Editor, FO Magazine
(USA)
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STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR THE US ECONOMY
The actual
U.S. economic growth is much less than advertised. Since 2001,
economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid increases in asset
prices (housing bubble) and expanding consumer debt rather than
spending on business investments and new income generation projects,
this brings unsustainable and unhealthy growth.... The investors are
not aware of the highly inflated asset prices, especially the
mortgage-backed securities promoted by Wall Street as high-quality
financial instruments, while in fact they are very high risk
securities. Most investors base their investment on future
expectations (speculation) rather than fundamental financial
health... In IIM's opinion, the conditions for a crash were not met
in 2006, however, attention must be paid early to avoid coming
closer to the tipping point. The more the current Administration is
waiting to make a change, the stronger the downward momentum and the
more the inertia will be to reverse the direction. In other words,
the socioeconomic and political pains that will appear from the
necessary reforms will be much more painful.
Scientific Papers:
Fedorova M.N.
Specialty "State and municipal management"
Scientific adviser:
AB Nisilevich
Ministry of Education and Science of The Russian
Federation
Moscow State University Economics, Statistics And
Informatics (MESI) Institute Of Law
(Russia)
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The Economic Recovery
"Investing in innovation industries is the only sustainable way out
of the crisis, said
Med Yones, one of the few experts who
predicted
the economic crisis.
Jana Gavare
Daily Business Magazine
(Latvia)
<-
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original
citation
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Economic News
"Economic expert
promises speedy global recovery'"
Eugenia Vlasova, Journalist
Internovosti Russian News Agency (Russia)
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Independent News
Independent
thinker.. warned us about the crisis.. a solution to the crisis.
Gary Anthony Ramsay
President, NY Association of Black
Journalists (USA)
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Lunch
with a Leader
Med Jones, one of the few
economists to predict the Great Recession of 2008.
Paul Crompton, Journalist
Al Arabiya News Channel
(Saudi Arabia)
<-
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original
citation
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The
Economic Crisis: Changed everything without changing anything
The
answer to the first question is related to one of the basic problems
of economists: the impossibility to create models that predict the
evolutions of the economy... It should be noted, however, that there
have been people who have warned about the danger of a crisis, among
them Med Jones...
Andreea
Irimia
The Christian Review Journal
semneletimpului.ro (Romania)
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Economic Prophets..
Before
the "recession" entered the everyday speech of the broadest mass...
Med Jones, the president of International Institute of Management
warned about the crisis
Business News
SLOBODNA DALMACIJA
Slobodnadalmacija.hr (Croatia)
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Economic Predictions Research
Project
"Every decade or so, a few geniuses are discovered. For
years they work hard trying to solve incredibly complex problems,
they labor in relative obscurity until they achieve great results.
At first they are ignored, dismissed or ridiculed by their peers,
later they are recognized for their exceptional abilities and
achievements. These exceptional experts saw what most of the world
failed to see".
Angela Mokovich
Wall Street Economists
(USA)
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Market
Beat
If the Fed raises
interest rates, while other central banks maintain lower or lower
interest rates, the risk of capital outflow from these countries to
the US will increase, causing a significant fall in the stock
markets of these countries. (Says Med Jones)
Kostas Ioannidis
Economy and Market
Columnist
Naftemporiki.gr (Greece)
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US Stock Market > Research Analysis
Now, in a world where high-frequency trading and derivative
arbitrage are rampant, even experienced investors can hardly be
rational, let alone know when to buy, hold and sell. This is why too
many Wall Street experts are giving up piles of contradictory
opinions. The current prediction science and prediction models have
not yet been developed to predict the extent of the market's
performance in the next month or the next quarter... This year,
investors worried about the consequences of China, oil prices,
terrorist attacks, the Brexit vote, and the US presidential
election. But few people have noticed the risks in the foreign
exchange market and options market. However, if the Fed raises
interest rates when other central banks decide to maintain low
interest rates, this will increase the capital outflow from other
countries to the United States, causing the stocks of these
countries to fall sharply. Forex traders will switch to short the
currencies of these countries and hedge funds will short these
stocks. But what if the Fed decides to cut interest rates? This will
increase the risk of currency warfare because the United States must
remain competitive in international exports. In price wars, either
crude oil or money, all participants will suffer heavy losses. The
central bank is now in the middle of a bad choice and another worse
alternative. If the time and scale of their actions cannot be fully
calibrated and consistent, you can expect what kind of turmoil will
occur in the global financial market. In the trade war, it
will take a long time for the US financial market to be negatively
affected. The major companies in the S&P 500 have large export
earnings, so that the US stock market and economy will not escape in
this crisis. (Says Med Jones)
China Finance Online
jrj.com.cn (NASDAQ:
JRJC)
The Leading Financial Portal In China
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Selected Think Tank Papers and Articles
Investment Research Papers (Public Access)
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R6 Predictive Analytics and Investment Management System - A Quarterly and Annual Forecasting Model and Asset Management System. (2021)
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U.S. Economic Risks and Strategies 2007-2017, (Working Paper, 2006)
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The Next Financial Crisis: Debt, Currency, and Derivatives Risks At Highest Levels Since 2008 (2016-2017)
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Investment Papers (Private: Request Access)
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Asymmetric Stock Picking Strategies
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Optimal Stocks Valuation Model
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Stock Picking Criteria: Information vs. Noise
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Predictive Financial Models
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Selected Opinions and Media Quotes
Management Opinions and Quotes and Citations
Executive Education and CEO Leadership Quotes and Citations
Happiness Economics and Welll-being Quotes and Citations
Financial Crisis and Economics Quotes and Citations
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Related Pages:
For bio and media, please visit Med Jones' Bio page
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Notes:
Role, Purpose and Conflict of Interest
The Institute is a think tank and education organization. Our opinion is incidental to our profession. We are not an investment advisory or brokerage firm. We do not seek outside investments. We do not manage external assets. We do not function as a rating agency. We do not accept compensation from companies for review or rating purposes. The expressed opinions should not be considered as an endorsement for or against any asset, company, investment firm, industry or an economy. Any recommendation for or against any asset or a strategy is done for an educational purpose only. Markets are hyper-dynamic, our forecasts continuously change with changing data; they are used as an input to complex risk management and valuation decision models. Despite past success in economic forecasting and research portfolio designs, we do not provide any guarantee for future forecasts or performance.
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Contact Information:
- For speaking and consulting engagements, please contact the International Institute of Management
- Please note that Mr. Jones is available for interviews related to business strategy, economic development, happiness and well-being economic, he does not give economic forecasting or investment related media interviews. For institutional investment think tank research and consulting services, please contact the Institute.
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